Weirdness gets a bad rap. People might call you weird as an insult. Well, OK, maybe they just do that to me. But weird isn’t just a bad thing. Weird can be good.
For example, to win big in daily fantasy sports (DFS) tournaments, you often need to get a little weird. Pick a guy or two few others do. Stack a particular game many others likely won’t. And scatter some smart plays among your weirdness along the way.
In Week 2, the Madman is looking at the Lions-49ers game and seeing a stack of players from both teams in our lineups who hopefully can deliver a stack of cash.
That’s kind of weird, you say? Because the 49ers looked quite ordinary in a loss at Minnesota last week, and the Lions looked pitiful in getting routed at home by the Jets, right?
Correct, those things did happen. That’s where the weird comes in. Because others might be scared off by those factors, we envision ownership rates in larger tournaments for some players we will use from this game to be low, thus giving us the opportunity to gain on a larger portion of the field if it does turn into a barnburner.
And don’t the Chiefs-Steelers and Browns-Saints games have higher Over/Unders, thus making them higher possibilities for a shootout? Wouldn’t you rather stack those games?
Yes, that would make sense. And those who aren’t weird enough likely will do exactly that, so we go against the grain and choose a different game, because, you know, we’re weird.
Now, understand, we will field some lineups that include stacks from those aforementioned preferred games, but we will have at least as many from our weird stack. We will shuffle between a collection of players from our primary target game — Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Garopollo, Matt Breida, Alfred Morris, Theo Riddick, Pierre Garcon, Dante Pettis, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones Jr., Kenny Golladay and George Kittle.
Of various combos, the one we land on as our favorite on DraftKings includes Stafford ($6,100), Breida ($4,800), Alvin Kamara ($9,500), Pettis ($4,000), Tate ($6,500), Golladay ($4,800), Kittle ($3,800), James Conner ($6,700) and the Rams defense ($3,700).
This gives us three guys on either side of the Lions-49ers affair. Because we have little confidence in the Lions’ running game, yet believe the 49ers have a much better chance of scoring on the ground, we lean to Stafford (expecting a bounce-back performance) and Detroit wide receivers. We add a 49ers running back and choose Breida over Morris because DraftKings uses full-point PPR scoring.
We slot Pettis as a cheap WR option, with Marquise Goodwin likely either out or limited by a thigh problem, and we add San Francisco tight end Kittle.
We fill in the remaining spots with a superstar in a great matchup with Kamara, which gives us some exposure to the Browns-Saints, and Conner at the flex, because his price hasn’t caught up with his value and it exposes us to Chiefs-Steelers.
Our stack is in order. All that is left is to win stacks of cash. And all we had to do was get a little weird.
Post fantasy Madman Drew Loftis and Roto Rage Jarad Wilk debate whom you should start this week:
Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Russell Wilson
Jimmy Garoppolo and Russell WilsonGetty Images (2)Drew: Garoppolo — Even without favorite target Marquise Goodwin, we expect Jimmy G to have a fine day feasting on the Lions’ defense in what we envision will be a high-scoring affair. Plus, Bears defense looked ripe last week, before Aaron Rodgers turned into a one-legged Superman. We don’t expect Wilson to pull off the same type of heroics, not behind that offensive line.
Jarad: Wilson — Never underestimate Wilson and his ability to make something out of nothing. He will have to prove he can do that again, as he will be without Doug Baldwin and his main targets will be Tyler Lockett, the elderly Brandon Marshall and Week 1 surprise Will Dissly. Despite rushing for just 5 yards last week, Wilson threw for 298 yards and three TDs against a Broncos defense that ranked fourth against the pass in 2017. Garoppolo doesn’t have a lengthy track record. He hasn’t proven much of anything yet. Age over beauty, man. Experience will win out.
Last week: Jarad 19.5 (Andrew Luck — 319 pass yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), Drew 1.6 (Marcus Mariota — 103 pass yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 15 rush yards)
Season: Jarad leads series, 1-0
Nick Foles QB, Eagles, at Buccaneers
(FanDuel $7,300/DraftKings $5,700)
A bad Bucs secondary is missing its top two corners. Foles showed last season he is capable of big games on occasion — not unlike Ryan Fitzpatrick. Packaging Foles with Nelson Agholor or Zach Ertz or even Mike Wallace could pay DFS dividends.
Duke Johnson Jr. RB, Browns, at Saints
(FD $5,200/DK $4,200)
Expecting the Saints to put up plenty of points. That means Cleveland will have to keep up, with likely means more passing, which means more Johnson.
Danny Amendola WR, Dolphins, at Jets
(FD $5,100/DK $4,600)
Has favorable matchup primarily facing Jets slot corner Buster Skrine. Amendola should be especially useful in PPR formats, standard leagues not as much.
Ricky Seals-Jones TE, Cardinals, at Rams
(FD $5,200/DK $2,900)
Rams D has few weaknesses in personnel. Jared Cook breakout in Week 1 shows where they are most vulnerable.
Andrew Luck QB, Colts, at Redskins
(FD $7,500/DK $6,200)
Washington shut down the Cardinals last week, and Josh Norman could give T.Y. Hilton fits when the Colts send the WR to Norman’s side of the field. Luck’s secondary options inspire little confidence.
Chris Carson RB, Seahawks, at Bears
(FD $5,900/DK $4,100)
Remember a minute ago when we talked about Bears D-line giving Seattle trouble? Well, that makes it hard to run the ball.
Jamaal Williams RB, Packers, vs. Vikings
(FD $6,100/ DK $5,200)
Vikings were among the stingiest defenses last season against opposing running backs. After one week this season, no reason to believe that has changed.
Chris Hogan WR, Patriots, at Jaguars
(FD $6,200/DK $5,400)
Bad news, after disappointing first week, he now faces fiercest secondary in the league. Good news: His value likely will drop and you might be able to snag him for cheap next week.
Tweet of the Week
Would be a great story if the Browns went from 0-16 to 0-0-16.
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) September 9, 2018